Multiscale Wind Forecasting Using Explainable-Adaptive Hybrid Deep Learning

This study presents a multiscale, uncertainty-aware hybrid deep learning approach addressing the short-term wind speed prediction problem, which is critical for the reliable planning and operation of wind energy systems. Wind signals are decomposed using adaptive variational mode decomposition (VMD), and the resulting wind components are processed together with meteorological data through a dual-stream CNN–BiLSTM architecture. Based on this multiscale representation, probabilistic forecasts are generated using quantile regression to capture best- and worst-case scenarios for decision-making purposes. Unlike fixed prediction intervals, the proposed approach produces adaptive prediction bands that expand during unstable wind conditions and contract during calm periods. The developed model is evaluated using four years of meteorological data from the Afyonkarahisar region of Türkiye. While the proposed model achieves competitive point forecasting performance (RMSE = 0.700 m/s and MAE = 0.54 m/s), its main contribution lies in providing reliable probabilistic forecasts through well-calibrated uncertainty quantification, offering decision-relevant information beyond single-point predictions. The proposed method is compared with a classical CNN–LSTM and several structural variants. Furthermore, SHAP-based explainability analysis indicates that seasonal and solar-related variables play a dominant role in the forecasting process.