Economic Analysis of Condition-Monitoring-Based Predictive Maintenance in Power Plants under Market Elasticity

Condition-monitoring-based predictive maintenance can increase the power plant availability by preventing forced outages. However, the actual on-stream time depends on market elasticity and dynamics, which are affected by cost and penetration of other power generation technologies. This paper develops a systematic approach for the economic analysis of investment in condition monitoring technologies with due consideration of market elasticity. Focus is on corrosion monitoring in coal-fired power plants (CFFPs) since corrosion in high-temperature coal-fired boilers is a leading cause of equipment failure. Investment in sensor networks for measuring corrosion and operating conditions like metal temperature and concentrations of O2 and SO2 is investigated. The unscented Kalman filter is used to estimate corrosion in the waterwall section of the boiler under multiple sensor networks. Electricity produced by CFPPs in the future in the U.S. due to changes in availability under market elasticity is studied. Sensitivity of the incremental net present value to factors like the number, type, and cost of sensors is analyzed.