The epidemiology of wild–crop Interfaces: Integrating ecology, evolution, and management through modeling

Plant diseases occurring across wild and crop plants present modeling and management challenges. Wild plant and crop pathosystems differ in ecological structure, evolutionary dynamics and responsiveness to human intervention. At the interface, pathogens may spill over, spill back, persist, or evolve, shaped by host diversity, dispersal processes, and landscape connectivity. The potential importance of factors including pathogen dispersal, host life history, and spatial configuration are examined through a qualitative comparison of case studies: Puccinia graminis, Phakopsora pachyrhizi, Xylella fastidiosa, Pyricularia oryzae Triticum lineage, and Austropuccinia psidii. These examples illustrate how wild hosts may function as reservoirs, recombination partners or spillover targets, and how their role influences management efficacy and evolutionary risk. We explore the consequences of this wild–crop interface through two central questions: (1) how should plant diseases involving wild and cultivated pathosystems be managed, and (2) what proportion of management effort should be allocated to each system? We show the principles underpinning answers to these questions via a conceptual framework based on a generic compartmental model incorporating asymmetric transmission and system-specific interventions, thereby accounting for key aspects of pathogen spread within and between wild host and crop populations. Finally, we identify critical data needs and modeling directions to better inform disease management on the wild plant-crop interface and argue for a more integrative approach bridging ecological and anthropogenic drivers of epidemics.