Green Industry and High-Quality Employment Outcomes in 20 Mountainous Counties of Zhejiang (2010–2023)

Promoting green industrial development and enhancing high-quality employment are crucial for advancing county-level economic growth and achieving shared prosperity. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution trends of green industrial development and high-quality employment using panel data from 20 mountainous counties (cities and districts) in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2023. It employs panel models to investigate the effects and mechanisms through which green industrial development fosters high-quality employment. The results indicate that, during the study period, both green industry development and high-quality employment exhibited uneven progress across the 20 mountainous counties (cities and districts) in Zhejiang. Mechanism analysis revealed that green industrial development significantly promotes high-quality employment through two pathways: industrial structure upgrading and technological progress. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the impact of green industrial development on high-quality employment varies significantly across different industrial structures, with counties dominated by the tertiary sector showing more substantial promotion effects. The threshold regression analysis reveals a dual-threshold effect of technological progress in promoting high-quality employment through green industrial development, presenting an approximately J-shaped nonlinear relationship. The research findings provide significant support for the sustainable development of the ecological environment and society by addressing current imbalances between ecological preservation and economic or social growth.