Wind Power Prediction for Extreme Meteorological Conditions Based on SSA-TCN-GCNN and Inverse Adaptive Transfer Learning

Extreme weather conditions, specifically typhoons and strong gusts, create a highly transient environment for wind power data collection, leading to performance degradation that significantly impacts the safety and stability of the wind power system. To accurately predict wind power trends under these conditions, this paper proposes a prediction model integrating Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and a global average pooling layer, combined with inverse adaptive transfer learning. First, SSA is applied to reduce noise in the collected wind power operation data and extract key information. Subsequently, a prediction model is constructed based on TCN, CNN, and global average pooling. The model employs dilated causal convolutions to capture long-term dependencies and uses two-dimensional convolution kernels to extract local mutation features. Furthermore, a domain-adaptive transfer learning module is designed to adjust the model’s parameter weights via backward optimization based on the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) between the source and target domains. Experimental validation is conducted using real-world wind power operation data from a wind farm in Guangxi, containing 3000 samples sampled at 10 min intervals specifically during severe typhoon periods. Experimental results demonstrate that even with only 60% of the target data, the proposed method outperforms the traditional TCN neural network, reducing the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 58.1% and improving the Coefficient of Determination (R2) by 32.7%, thereby verifying its effectiveness in data-scarce extreme scenarios.