Socio-economic and ecological risks of climate change and policy priorities for the Persian Gulf mangroves

Iranian mangrove forests offer vital ecological benefits, including shoreline protection and support for marine habitats. However, they face threats from oil pollution, shrimp farms, infrastructure development, and climate change. Rising sea levels and greenhouse gas emissions heighten extinction risks, with the potential for 35% of species to be lost by 2090. Coastal communities are also vulnerable. Addressing these challenges requires regional cooperation, economic diversification, investment in renewable energy, and effective environmental policies to mitigate climate impacts. In particular, this work shows that the Persian Gulf is not only affected by severe regional ecological pressures, but also that quantitative projections of the future of the Persian Gulf highlight the negative socio-economic impacts of climate change, which require urgent and integrated actions that is not limited to risk warning, but also requires regional cooperation, implementation of integrated environmental policies, and reduction of dependence on fossil fuels to cope with future climate change.