Leveraging LiDAR Data and Machine Learning to Predict Pavement Marking Retroreflectivity

This study focused on developing and validating machine learning models to predict pavement marking retroreflectivity using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) intensity data. The retroreflectivity data was collected using a Mobile Retroreflectometer Unit (MRU) due to its increasing acceptance among states as a compliant measurement device. A comprehensive dataset was assembled spanning more than 1000 miles of roadways, capturing diverse marking materials, colors, installation methods, pavement types, and vehicle speeds. The final dataset used for model development focused on dry condition measurements and roadway segments most relevant to state transportation agencies. A detailed synchronization process was implemented to ensure the accurate pairing of retroreflectivity and LiDAR intensity values. Using these data, several machine learning techniques were evaluated, and an ensemble of gradient boosting-based models emerged as the top performer, predicting pavement retroreflectivity with an R2 of 0.94 on previously unseen data. The repeatability of the predicted retroreflectivity was tested and showed similar consistency as the MRU. The model’s accuracy was confirmed against independent field segments demonstrating the potential for LiDAR to serve as a practical, low-cost alternative for MRU measurements in routine roadway inspection and maintenance. The approach presented in this study enhances roadway safety by enabling more frequent, network-level assessments of pavement marking performance at lower cost, allowing agencies to detect and correct visibility problems sooner and helping to prevent nighttime and adverse weather crashes.