A statistical assessment of the EU packaging waste directive (2004 Amendment) on plastic packaging recycling in the EU

• Impacts of EU Packaging & Packaging Waste Directive are assessed. • Plastic packaging waste (PPW) recycling outcomes are evaluated across 13 EU countries. • Interrupted time series (ITS) analyses PPW recycling data. • Power & Type I error simulations assess the reliability of the ITS results. • Results indicate that targeted national measures are needed to support PPW recycling. Plastic packaging waste (PPW) presents a major sustainability challenge across the European Union (EU). The 2004 amendment to the EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive (2004/12/EC) introduced the first PPW recycling targets, yet little empirical evidence evaluates its real-world implications. This study addresses the research question: Was the implementation of Directive 2004/12/EC associated with statistically significant changes in PPW recycling rates across EU member states? Interrupted time series and a volume trend analysis were applied to PPW recycling rates in 13 EU countries with data spanning 1999–2022. Significant positive associated effects were detected in the Netherlands, Germany and Spain. Significant negative associated effects were detected in Belgium, France, Austria and Ireland. These findings suggest that policy-associated changes likely reflect differences in national implementation conditions. The results provide an empirical evidence base for future EU policy by identifying where additional support or strengthened governance mechanisms may be needed.