Spatiotemporal relationships and underlying drivers of ecosystem service supply-demand matching following vegetation restoration in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River basin

Accurate identification of the spatiotemporal characteristics and spatial matching of ecosystem services (ESs) supply and demand, as well as determination of the factors influencing the ESs supply-demand relationship, is of great significance for controlling the design of regional ecological protection policies and sustainable management. Unfortunately, the comprehensive characteristics of changes in ESs supply and demand, as well as their driving mechanisms, after large-scale vegetation restoration in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River basin (SYRB) are still unclear. This study, conducted in the SYRB, employed specialized models to assess water yield, soil conservation, and carbon fixation on both the supply and demand sides after vegetation restoration in 2000 and 2023. Subsequently, the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the supply-demand matching of ESs was explored by constructing the supply-demand ratio index. Finally, using the optimal parameter Geodetector, the influencing factors of the ESs supply-demand matching relationship in the SYRB were further identified. The results showed that the water yield in the SYRB was generally in a deficit, indicating insufficient supply throughout the study period, but this deficit state improved over time. In 2023, the counties with insufficient water yield supply were primarily located in the northern part of the SYRB and the Guanzhong Plain. Soil conservation reached a fundamental reversal from a “general deficit” to an “overall surplus.” In 2023, the counties with insufficient soil conservation supply were mainly located in the northern part of the SYRB. In contrast, the supply-demand relationship of carbon fixation in the vast majority of countries deteriorated. In 2023, the counties with insufficient carbon fixation supply were primarily located in the northern part of the SYRB and the Guanzhong Plain. Economic density, vegetation coverage, and population density were identified as the key factors in monitoring the water yield supply-demand matching relationship. Precipitation, slope, and population density were the main controlling factors for the soil conservation supply-demand matching relationship. Economic density, forest and grassland percentage, and population density were identified as the key factors shaping the carbon fixation supply-demand matching relationship. This study clarified the supply-demand relationship and driving mechanisms for key ESs in the SYRB, thereby providing a theoretical basis for the comprehensive management of regional ecosystems.