Infrastructure Barriers to the Electrification of Vehicle Fleets in Russian Cities

Switching to electric vehicles (EVs) could help reduce air pollution in cities. This is especially important for cities in Russia that have grown quickly because of industry, like those in Siberia, where environmental problems are particularly acute. However, several factors continue to hinder the rapid expansion of EVs on the market, such as an additional strain on the energy infrastructure, which threatens to cause power outages. This study proposes a model for estimating the electricity consumption by EVs in the largest Russian cities, taking into account the technical characteristics of the EV fleet and climatic conditions. The calculations indicate that if 15% of the current car fleet are replaced by EVs, electricity consumption in the 16 largest cities in Russia would increase by 2.2 TWh per year in total. The estimated additional demand in particular cities varies between 33 mln and 769 mln kWh per year, depending on the number of vehicles and the local climate. Furthermore, we conducted an intra-day simulation of electricity consumption from EVs in a conditional Russian city with a population of over one million people. Three scenarios for the power grid load have been developed: (A) the maximum scenario, in which all EVs have a battery level of 0%; (B) the medium scenario, where EVs’ state of charge is distributed between 0% and 100%, and (C) the minimum scenario, involving charging scheduling that allows only EVs with a battery level of 20% or less to charge. The findings show that replacing just 15% of the car fleet with electric vehicles will trigger an increase in current daily household urban consumption of 28.4% in scenario (C), 75.6% in scenario (B) and 141.8% in scenario (A). Consequently, even in Russia’s largest cities, the further proliferation of EVs requires large-scale investments in power infrastructure. An additional 1 mln kWh used by EVs per day may require $160.7 mln investments in energy facilities and urban distribution networks. These findings highlight the necessity of a more thorough cost–benefit analysis of widespread electric vehicle adoption in densely populated urban areas.