State Capacity, Refugee Reception, and Attitudes towards Refugees

What explains opposition to refugees? Aside from cultural, economic, and safety-related threats, existing research suggests that individuals are less tolerant when they think their state lacks the capacity to control external borders. Focusing solely on external borders, however, overlooks another dimension of migration management: reception and integration. I argue that perceptions of a state’s refugee reception capacity shape refugee-related attitudes. Three studies – focusing on Ukrainian refugees in Central and Eastern Europe – provide evidence. Study 1 analyzes opposition to Ukrainian refugees and the reception programs intended to benefit them. Study 2, a design-based analysis, shows that expanding a state’s capacity to manage refugee reception causes individuals to consider refugees less of a problem. Study 3, a pre-registered survey experiment, replicates this finding and investigates whether effects extend beyond problem perception. Findings suggest that investing in effective refugee reception may improve the lives of refugees while also reducing public opposition.