Global, regional, and National burden of urologic neoplasms from 1990 to 2021 and future projections to 2050, a comprehensive analysis for global burden of disease

Urologic neoplasms are considered to pose a serious threat to patients’ lives and quality of life. Analyzing and describing the global disease burden of urologic neoplasms is necessary. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 was utilized to obtain and analyze the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for urologic neoplasms from 1990 to 2021. Additionally, risk factors contributing to urologic neoplasms were estimated, and the model was utilized to predict the global burden over the next 30 years. A continuous growth trend in the number of urologic neoplasm cases worldwide was observed. However, the ASDR and DALYs were found to be stable or decreasing. Trends vary by gender, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI), with a greater burden of urologic neoplasms typically observed in older men. Moreover, risk factors for kidney cancer include tobacco use, high body mass index, and occupational hazards, whereas bladder cancer risk factors consist of tobacco use and elevated fasting plasma glucose levels. It is estimated that by 2050, the global incidence of urologic neoplasms will exhibit a relatively stable trend, while the mortality rate is projected to demonstrate a gradual decline. In high SDI regions, elderly males aged 75 and older are categorized as a high-risk group for urologic neoplasms. Smoking and elevated fasting plasma glucose levels are identified as the primary risk factors for bladder cancer, whereas obesity is recognized as the predominant risk factor for kidney cancer.