Event‐Level Linkages Between Atmospheric Circulation and Anomalous Precipitation Types in a Typical East Asian Monsoon Basin

Abstract Anomalous precipitation, with unexpected intensity and/or spatiotemporal structures, makes flood risk management in the East Asian monsoon regions challenging, where interacting circulation systems generate highly variable precipitation events. We develop an event‐level quantitative framework based on a novel lightweight Trans‐Unet model and apply it to the Hanjiang River Basin as proof‐of‐concept using a 59‐year, 1‐km daily precipitation data set. The framework reveals four patterns: West‐type (37.0% of events), Middle‐type (25.3%), Southeast‐type (21.7%), and East‐type (16.0%). West‐type events show bimodal seasonality in July and September, with July peaks linked to ∼20% fewer September events, suggesting potential implications for adaptive reservoir regulation. A probabilistic analysis further quantifies the influence of synoptic drivers on anomalies, for example, a westward extension of the western North Pacific Subtropical High, reaching as far as Taiwan, increases West‐type frequency by ∼23%, while a northward‐displaced, intensified East Asian jet at 200 hPa over northern China enhances occurrence by ∼72%.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2026-01-19
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl120098
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
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article

Event‐Level Linkages Between Atmospheric Circulation and Anomalous Precipitation Types in a Typical East Asian Monsoon Basin

Wenpeng Zhao, Yan Xu, Hongyuan Fang, Abhishek et al.
Geophysical Research Letters
Climate variability and models
article

Event‐Level Linkages Between Atmospheric Circulation and Anomalous Precipitation Types in a Typical East Asian Monsoon Basin

Wenpeng Zhao, Yan Xu, Hongyuan Fang, Abhishek, Jian Zhang, Lingjie Li, Xiao Liu, Kexin Liu, Shuping Ma
article en

Abstract

Abstract Anomalous precipitation, with unexpected intensity and/or spatiotemporal structures, makes flood risk management in the East Asian monsoon regions challenging, where interacting circulation systems generate highly variable precipitation events. We develop an event‐level quantitative framework based on a novel lightweight Trans‐Unet model and apply it to the Hanjiang River Basin as proof‐of‐concept using a 59‐year, 1‐km daily precipitation data set. The framework reveals four patterns: West‐type (37.0% of events), Middle‐type (25.3%), Southeast‐type (21.7%), and East‐type (16.0%). West‐type events show bimodal seasonality in July and September, with July peaks linked to ∼20% fewer September events, suggesting potential implications for adaptive reservoir regulation. A probabilistic analysis further quantifies the influence of synoptic drivers on anomalies, for example, a westward extension of the western North Pacific Subtropical High, reaching as far as Taiwan, increases West‐type frequency by ∼23%, while a northward‐displaced, intensified East Asian jet at 200 hPa over northern China enhances occurrence by ∼72%.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 53(2)
China Meteorological Administration (CN), Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee (IN), National University of Singapore (SG), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Hebei Meteorological Bureau (CN), Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute (CN), Guangzhou Urban Planning Survey & Design Institute (CN), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CN), Yangzhou University (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 89%
Climate variability and models
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