Causal effects of expressed distrust in scientists on compliance intentions

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, media pundits and government officials have raised concerns about whether a rise in self-reported distrust in scientists might shape the public's willingness to comply with science-based regulations, both in relation to COVID-19 and in other areas. This concern is based on the assumption that distrust expressed in surveys can also affect real-world behaviour. However, existing research has not examined the extent to which expressed trust in scientists has a causal effect on the public's adherence to scientific regulations more generally. Using a between-groups experimental design, this study tests the hypothesis that increasing or decreasing trust in scientists causes a corresponding change in compliance with their recommendations across a range of domains. The results show that decreasing trust does reduce compliance, and scholars and scientists face great difficulty in raising public trust in scientists.