IMPACT OF THE GEOPOLITICAL DYNAMICS OF ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION ON NIGERIA

Abstract This study examines the impact of geopolitical dynamics on Nigeria’s energy system transformation, focusing on fossil fuel consumption, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and electricity access from 1981 to 2022. The main objective is to investigate how geopolitical factors influence Nigeria’s energy system transformation. Specific objectives include: 1) assessing the impact of fossil fuel consumption on carbon emissions; 2) analyzing the relationship between FDI and carbon emissions; and 3) evaluating the influence of electricity access on carbon emissions in Nigeria. A quantitative approach using time-series analysis is employed. Data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical Bulletin and the World Bank are utilized to construct an econometric model. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression is applied to analyze relationships among fossil fuel consumption, FDI, electricity access, an infrastructure index, exchange rate, and carbon emissions. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and regression diagnostics are conducted to interpret findings. The study reveals that FDI and electricity access significantly impact carbon emissions in Nigeria, highlighting their pivotal roles in the country’s energy landscape. However, fossil fuel consumption does not show a statistically significant influence on carbon emissions. Geopolitical dynamics play a critical role in shaping Nigeria’s energy policies and outcomes. Key recommendations include implementing robust energy policies, fostering partnerships for renewable energy projects, enhancing energy infrastructure, promoting energy efficiency initiatives, and aligning national strategies with global sustainability objectives.