From the petrodollar to the green energy RMB: green energy–driven mechanisms and pathways for Renminbi internationalization

Abstract Amid the accelerating global transition toward low-carbon, electrified, and digitalized energy systems, this study introduces the concept of a “green value anchor” and develops a progressive mechanism for the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB, ISO code: CNY) in green energy trade. This mechanism evolves from trade settlement to financial circulation and, ultimately, to institutional trust. Using cross-border green electricity trade as the initial breakthrough point, we conduct multi-scenario forecasts based on Yunnan’s green power exports to Southeast and South Asia. The results indicate that, by 2060, the RMB settlement scale may reach 2.7 trillion yuan. Under a nationwide multi-channel clean-energy transmission network, this scale is projected to expand to 8.1–13.5 trillion yuan, with capital precipitation of 4.0–6.8 trillion yuan, forming a self-reinforcing system of regional settlement and green asset repatriation. Given the substantially larger scale of broader green-energy trade, these projections can be regarded as a conservative lower bound for the RMB’s green internationalization potential. Building on these findings, the paper conceptualizes the “green value anchor” as a distinct third logic of RMB internationalization, differentiated from both the fossil-energy–based petrodollar system and the euro-centered carbon market. Green electricity serves as the initial catalyst, enabling credit accumulation through a synergistic financial value cycle between green electricity and wider green energy sectors. This process ultimately supports the RMB in gaining an institutional reserve role within the global carbon-neutrality governance system. The study concludes that the RMB is transitioning from a “trade-dependent” model of internationalization to a new phase driven by “green value creation.”