D4.2 System and Behavioural Based Theory of Change and Proposed Interventions for the ENFASYS cases

European farming needs to become more sustainable but faces many barriers. This study examined nine case studies across Europe where stakeholders created roadmaps for change, i.e. case study systems and behavioural based Theory of change, following a structured protocol. We systematically reviewed their Theories of change to find what works best. Our research used three methods: analysing who participated, identifying where to intervene in the system, and evaluating success factors. Our analysis revealed several key findings: · Strategies that target multiple aspects of a system work better than single-focus approaches · Combining economic tools with vision-setting showed the best results · Switzerland's success came from linking financial support to quality standards · Combined approaches performed 0.5 points better on our evaluation scale Who participated made a big difference. Having balanced groups with diverse perspectives led to better outcomes. Three factors strongly predicted success: · Market orientation (r=0.82) · Clarity of aims (r=0.79) · Research integration (r=0.74) We identified three different approaches to transformation: Market-Led Transformations (Serbia, Germany, Belgium, Ireland) Governance-Oriented Transformations (Switzerland, France & Wallonia) Adaptive-Collaborative Transformations (Greece, Italy, France) Each type works best in different settings. Based on these findings, we recommend: Combining shallow interventions with deeper system changes Ensuring balanced stakeholder representation Aligning economic incentives with environmental objectives Creating coordination mechanisms across governance levels Implementing strategic sequencing that builds momentum through incremental changes Our study resulted in a model called the "Optimal Leverage Point Strategy Model." This tool helps design effective transitions by assessing local governance and combining strategic interventions. Policymakers and practitioners can use this model to create changes that fit their specific regional contexts.