Grand strategic change after critical situations: Israel and Czechia after the October 7th attacks and Russia’s Ukraine invasion

Abstract This article examines whether strategic narratives and grand strategies exhibit continuity or change after traumatic geopolitical events. It scrutinises Israel’s response to the 7 October 2023 attacks and Czechia’s reaction to Russia’s February 2022 Ukraine invasion. Through (i) qualitative content analysis of leaders’ speeches and (ii) delineating Israeli and Czech grand strategies, it finds that the degree of change was proportional to the level of shock and threat. Israel responded to a first order critical situation with a grand strategic overhaul; Czechia answered a second order critical situation with a less substantial grand strategic adjustment. Yet both cases exhibited a key commonality: leaders drew on existing perceptions to frame and justify policy shifts, demonstrating that continuity and change are co-dependent in grand strategy. In sum, this article contributes new primary source data pertinent to two contemporary conflicts, challenges grand strategy’s great power centrism, and demonstrates the importance of rhetoric in preventing or facilitating grand strategic change.