What if farmers had seen it coming? The retrospective potential of extended-range forecasts in managing the 2018 drought in Norwegian agriculture

• Extended-range forecasts predicted the 2018 drought in Norway. • Strong user demand for climate forecasts reveals gaps in communication. • Limited decision options hindered farmers’ ability to adapt effectively. • Timely communication is crucial for effective drought preparedness. • Investments in adaptation infrastructure are crucial for leveraging forecasts. Climate variability and extreme weather events pose substantial challenges to global agriculture, threatening food security and self-sufficiency. In Norway, these impacts are anticipated to intensify with climate change. Extended-range weather forecasts, which predict conditions several weeks ahead, have emerged as powerful tools for enhancing agricultural decision-making and climate risk management. The 2018 drought in Norway, the most severe agricultural crisis in decades, starkly highlighted the sector’s vulnerability to climate risks. This study investigates the potential benefits of extended-range forecasts, which were not available to farmers during the drought. We focused on whether these forecasts could have accurately predicted the drought and how they might have been leveraged by the agricultural sector. Our findings reveal a high user demand and forecast relevance; however, significant gaps in communication, interpretation, and decision-making capacity were evident. Even if they had had access to the forecasts, individual farmers would have faced limited options to avert low yields due to the lack of adaptive infrastructure like irrigation systems. Yet, at the organizational level, there was substantial potential to enhance crisis management through improved communication strategies and decision-making frameworks. Investments in resilient agricultural practices and infrastructure, combined with these improved strategies, would enable the agriculture sector to better leverage extended-range forecasts, resulting in better crisis management and mitigation of future extreme weather events. The broader implication is clear: integrating reliable climate forecasts into agricultural decision-making processes can enhance resilience, by improving preparedness for increasing climate threats, thereby helping to secure food self-sufficiency in Norway and beyond.