Assessment of the impact of Ukrainian grain exports on the food security of the middle East and North African countries using the regression modeling method

The study aimed to assess the economic significance of Ukrainian wheat exports and their role in supporting food security in import-dependent Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries under war pressures. Destination-specific trade data for 2012-2023 were summarised and tested through correlation analysis and linear regression to capture price-volume-revenue interactions. An additional cross-country regression block for 2020-2022 related the share of Ukrainian wheat in national import structures to Global Food Security Index (GFSI) outcomes. It was established that reliance on Ukrainian wheat had been concentrated in several MENA markets, with the sharpest pre-war exposure observed in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Lebanon, and that import portfolios were reconfigured after 2022. It was demonstrated that export price remained the main short-run determinant of shipments to the region. It was found that price increases were associated with a marked contraction of export volumes and a decline in total export earnings within the observed range. It was also shown that higher export volumes were linked to only modest reductions in unit prices, implying potential for volume recovery without major price penalties if logistical frictions were eased. It was analysed that the association between Ukrainian import shares and GFSI shifted towards a more supportive pattern during the acute 2022 supply shock. It was generalised that the strongest foodsecurity sensitivity to Ukrainian supplies appeared in countries with higher undernourishment and medium GFSI levels. The results may be used by Ukrainian trade authorities, multilateral organisations and MENA procurement agencies to calibrate corridor support, risk-sharing and diversification measures