The longitudinal effect of perceived person-environment fit on academic trajectories and the mediating role of self-concepts and expectations of success

In Switzerland, a goal during lower secondary school is to secure a qualifying upper secondary education, either vocational education and training or general education. By combining person-environment fit theory and expectancy-value theory, it is assumed that students' perceived person-environment fit in primary school is associated with whether they enter a non-qualifying upper secondary education, mediated by self-concepts and expectations of success in mathematics and German. To test this mediation, a longitudinal structural equation model (SEM) was constructed, using data from 388 Swiss students at three measurement points. The results show that students' perceived person-environment fit in sixth grade indirectly and negatively predicted them entering a non-qualifying upper secondary education after completing ninth grade. The effect was mediated by self-concepts in mathematics and German as well as expectations of success in mathematics. The assumed effect of expectations of success on a non-qualifying upper secondary education was not significant, indicating that there are domain-specific mechanisms underlying the effects of person-environment fit and motivational beliefs on educational trajectories. Implications for theoretical conceptualization and educational practice are discussed.