Testing Intuition-Based and Market-Based Forecasting: A Stage 1 Registered Report Using Financial Prediction Tasks

This Stage 1 Registered Report proposes a preregistered replication and extension of prior exploratory work comparing an Intuition Market (IM) with a traditional Prediction Market (PM) in forecasting binary financial outcomes. Previous exploratory analyses suggested that IM performance may equal or exceed that of PM under specific conditions, particularly when predictions are expressed with moderate-to-high confidence and when both methods converge on the same outcome. However, these findings require confirmation using independent data and preregistered analyses. The present study evaluates these patterns using a new set of 30 future financial events. Primary objectives are to test whether (i) IM predictions exceed chance accuracy when confidence is ≥60%, (ii) concordant IM–PM predictions yield higher-than-chance accuracy. All hypotheses, inclusion criteria, outcome measures, and analyses are specified a priori. Primary outcomes are predictive accuracy percentages. This study aims to assess whether intuition-based forecasting provides reliable information beyond standard prediction markets, while ensuring full transparency, reproducibility, and protection against analytical flexibility.