Roars vs. Results: A Natural Experiment on Spectator Impact in Elite European Football Leagues

Abstract Introduction. The Covid-19 pandemic influenced the world in many ways, including sport. Many competitions were held without spectators, creating a natural experiment for the evaluation of home advantage. The present study thus evaluates the impact of crowd presence on home advantage in high level football competitions, specifically outcomes of all games in four highest ranked European leagues (England – Premier League, Spain – La Liga, Italy – Serie A, Germany – Bundesliga) from the start of the 2018/2019 season until the FIFA World Cup in 2022. Material and Methods. The traditional method of Pollard was used to evaluate home advantage in divisions of leagues and on three time intervals relative to the Covid-19 pandemic – before, during and after. Test for one proportion was done to check if the result of home advantage was significant, while tests for two proportions were used to compare home advantage between the time intervals. Results. In three of the four leagues (English, Spanish, German), home teams had significantly lower coefficient of home advantage results in games without spectators compared to games with spectators, but in the four leagues combined, home advantage was significant in games without spectators. Conclusions. The results indicate that crowd support is a significant contributor to home advantage in the best European football leagues, although the presence of spectators per se is not the only factor which influences home advantage, suggesting a need to consider other factors that may be of relevance.