Tracing young people's entry and retention in the Australian agriculture sector: A longitudinal analysis of rural employment pathways

The migration of rural youth to urban areas for employment opportunities has been a central scholarship focus on young people in rural and regional contexts. While leaving has often been characterised as a normative transition toward achieving socially accepted visions of adulthood, recent contributions to the rural mobilities literature challenge the assumption that leaving equates to success. These works call for renewed attention to the lived experiences of those who choose to stay. This paper presents a case study of the agriculture sector to examine the structures, influencing factors and available resources that shape young people's decisions to enter, remain in, or exit employment in a sector with a strong presence in rural and regional areas. It aims to highlight both the opportunities and the barriers that can either facilitate or hinder outward mobility from the sector. Our analysis draws on the longitudinal, nationally representative Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey to examine young people's pathways into and out of the agriculture sector. Leveraging the depth and breadth of HILDA, we are able to develop a robust understanding of the conditions that support sustained engagement in the sector, as well as the factors that drive young people to exit. Our findings reveal that a complex interplay of demographic characteristics, employment conditions, familial ties to agriculture, and geographic location shapes these trajectories. In doing so, the analysis highlights a broader set of structural and personal dynamics—both within and beyond young people's control—that influence their employment decisions and patterns of mobility. • Over half of Australian young people leave agricultural employment within ten years, with minimal re-entry rates • Older youth (26–35) and men are more likely to stay in agriculture. • Having a parent in agriculture strongly predicts staying in or entering the sector as well as regional residency. • Long hours and self-employment support retention; multiple jobs signal instability and exit.