Analytical Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Calculation for Point Source

Abstract—A number of specialized software packages have now been developed for calculating seismic hazard curves. Their algorithmic basis involves the application of numerical methods. A key feature of such calculations is the discretization of the identified earthquake focal zones (EFZ): each zone is divided into finite elements, with each element having seismic activity proportional to its area. In this case, in calculations, the magnitudes of earthquakes also take a discrete set of values. Numerical methods definitely make it possible to solve problems that cannot be described analytically, but they also introduce certain errors. Too coarse a division may not take into account local features of the seismic regime. The accuracy of the final results depends significantly on two key parameters: the selected magnitude discretization step and the principles of dividing EFZs. In this study, we consider a localized seismic source whose event flow strictly follows the Gutenberg–Richter law. To determine the intensity of seismic vibrations, the Shebalin macroseismic field equation is used.