Who should lead localized marketing in a cross-border e-commerce supply chain under demand uncertainty?

Purpose This study aims to investigate a cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) supply chain in which a domestic brand manufacturer enters overseas markets through a CBEC platform. Given the coexistence of manufacturer-led and platform-led localized marketing strategies in practice, this study explores which member should lead localized marketing to maximize the profits of both supply chain members. Design/methodology/approach This paper examines a practical scenario where the platform possesses only the mean and variance of market demand. Robust game-theoretic models are developed to analyze the platform's robust order quantity and the profits of supply chain members under three strategies: no localized marketing (BM), manufacturer-led localized marketing (MM) and platform-led localized marketing (EM). Findings The results indicate that the platform's profit decreases with rising demand uncertainty. However, when the price markup coefficient is high and the tariff rate is low, the platform increases its order quantity in response to higher demand uncertainty, leading to higher profits for the manufacturer. The platform-led localized marketing strategy outperforms the manufacturer-led strategy, as the latter reduces the platform's profit. Moreover, when the manufacturer's support factor is low, the platform-led localized marketing strategy can achieve a win–win outcome for both members. Originality/value This study employs robust game-theoretic models to analyze localized marketing strategies, providing practical insights for global brand development and the operational management of CBEC platforms.