Landscape Pattern Evolution in the Source Region of the Chishui River

Recognizing the evolution of landscape patterns in the Chishui River source region is essential for protecting ecosystems and sustainable growth in the Yangtze River Basin and other similar areas. However, knowledge of landscape pattern evolution within the primary channel zone remains insufficient. To address this gap, the current study used 2000–2020 land-use, geography, and socio-economic data, integrating landscape pattern indices, land-use transfer matrices, dynamic degree, the GeoDetector model, and the PLUS model. Results revealed that forest and cropland remained the prevailing land-use types throughout 2000–2020, comprising over 85% of the landscape. Grassland had the highest dynamic degree (1.58%), and landscape evolution during the study period was characterized by increased fragmentation, enhanced diversity, and stable dominance of major forms of land use. Anthropogenic influence on different landscape types followed the order: construction land > cropland > grassland > forest > water bodies. Land-use change in this region is a complex process governed by the interrelationships among various factors. Scenario-based predictions demonstrate pronounced variability in various land types. These findings provided a more comprehensive understanding of landscape patterns in karst river source regions, provided evidence-based support for regional planning, and offered guidance for ecological management of similar global river sources.