Integrating Complexity and Risk Analysis for Selection of Management Approaches in Complex Projects: Application to UN Peacekeeping Missions

The growing complexity and dynamism of industrial and organizational projects require management approaches that can effectively adapt to uncertainty and rapidly changing operational environments. In this context, this study proposes a methodology to identify the most suitable management approach—predictive, agile, or hybrid—in complex projects. Building on the “Approach suitability tool” of the Project Management Institute’s (PMI), the methodology integrates quantitative assessments of complexity and systemic risk. This is achieved through the analysis of stakeholder and risk networks, using metrics such as cyclomatic complexity and the coevolution parameter g, which allow for a deeper understanding of interactions and the evolution of project elements. The methodology was validated in three peacekeeping missions of the United Nations: UNMISS in South Sudan, MONUSCO in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and MINUSTAH in Haiti. The results confirm that the methodology accurately identifies the most appropriate management approach, emphasizing the effectiveness of hybrid approaches in complex and volatile environments. The proposed methodology serves as a valuable tool for optimizing project management in diverse contexts, enabling a quantitative and systematic evaluation of complexity and risk. It is adaptable and applicable to a wide range of complex projects, improving decision-making and planning in uncertain settings. Furthermore, by incorporating resilience as a cross-cutting principle, the methodology strengthens the ability of projects and their teams to maintain functionality and sustain learning even in highly volatile environments, where continuous adaptation becomes a critical success factor. In this sense, resilience emerges as the property that allows projects to absorb disruptions, reorganize, and preserve their core purpose without losing cohesion or direction.