Concentrated declines, distributed growth, and the challenges of balancing the green energy transition in the US

The clean energy transition, while critical for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, poses a threat to regions specialized in fossil fuel extraction. Advocates point to the development of green industries in those places as a solution. However, it is not clear that these industries will emerge in the same regions as fossil fuel extraction. This paper maps the changing geography of U.S. primary energy production by assembling a dataset across the contiguous U.S. between 2004 and 2021, and uses a spatial-quantitative approach to describe how the geography of primary energy production has changed over this period. We find that the primary energy transition involves a shift in both technology and geography, from regionally concentrated fossil fuel production to nationally distributed renewable energy. Less than one third of wind and solar generation in 2021 occurred in areas specialized in fossil fuel extraction. There are few examples of cases where declines in fossil fuels have been offset by growth in wind and solar electricity generation. Our research documents well-known patterns of regional decline, as well as a small number of surprising cases of renewables growth in fossil fuel heavy regions. We discuss the policy implications of these findings for place-based green industrial strategies, and the need for diversified economic development strategies that help regions transition away from fossil fuel extraction.