The Role of Equatorial Waves in Triggering Precipitation Extremes in the Maritime Continent

Abstract This review offers a comprehensive analysis of convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) and their pivotal role in driving precipitation extremes across the Maritime Continent. It examines the current understanding of CCEWs, evaluates the performance of numerical models and forecasting techniques in predicting these phenomena, and pinpoints critical areas for improvement. The discussion centers on three key types of equatorial waves: equatorial Rossby waves, Kelvin waves, and mixed Rossby–gravity waves. By connecting scientific insights with practical forecasting applications, the review sheds light on the challenges of predicting these waves while identifying opportunities to advance both fundamental knowledge and forecasting accuracy. Designed as an educational resource, it targets operational forecasting centers, meteorologists, and researchers, aiming to enhance the prediction of extreme weather events in the region. Significance Statement Rainfall extremes in the Maritime Continent are among the most intense on Earth, posing major challenges for both society and weather forecasting. This review highlights the crucial role of convectively coupled equatorial waves—large-scale tropical weather systems—in triggering such events. Through both their direct influence and interactions with the diurnal rainfall cycle and other weather systems, equatorial waves amplify precipitation and create favorable conditions for extreme rainfall. Despite their important role in modulating precipitation extremes, they are still underrepresented in many numerical weather prediction models, limiting forecast accuracy. Improving understanding and representation of these waves offers a pathway toward better forecasts and greater resilience in one of the world’s most vulnerable and rain-prone regions.

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Publication Details

Journal
Monthly Weather Review
Published
2026-01-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-25-0073.1
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

The Role of Equatorial Waves in Triggering Precipitation Extremes in the Maritime Continent

Natasha Senior, Dariusz B. Baranowski, Piotr J. Flatau, Donaldi Sukma Permana et al.
Monthly Weather Review
Climate variability and models
article

The Role of Equatorial Waves in Triggering Precipitation Extremes in the Maritime Continent

Natasha Senior, Dariusz B. Baranowski, Piotr J. Flatau, Donaldi Sukma Permana, Sandro W. Lubis, Maria Flatau, Matthew C. Wheeler, Beata Latos, Jacek Piskozub, Thierry Lefort, Samantha Ferrett, Fadhlil R. Muhammad, Ida Pramuwardani, Adrian J. Matthews, Eddy Hermawan, Agie Wandala, Hanh Nguyen, Tito Praditya, Jeong-Yik Diong, Philippe Peyrillé, Idhan Abubakar, Muhamad R. Ferdiansyah, Kiki
article en

Abstract

Abstract This review offers a comprehensive analysis of convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) and their pivotal role in driving precipitation extremes across the Maritime Continent. It examines the current understanding of CCEWs, evaluates the performance of numerical models and forecasting techniques in predicting these phenomena, and pinpoints critical areas for improvement. The discussion centers on three key types of equatorial waves: equatorial Rossby waves, Kelvin waves, and mixed Rossby–gravity waves. By connecting scientific insights with practical forecasting applications, the review sheds light on the challenges of predicting these waves while identifying opportunities to advance both fundamental knowledge and forecasting accuracy. Designed as an educational resource, it targets operational forecasting centers, meteorologists, and researchers, aiming to enhance the prediction of extreme weather events in the region. Significance Statement Rainfall extremes in the Maritime Continent are among the most intense on Earth, posing major challenges for both society and weather forecasting. This review highlights the crucial role of convectively coupled equatorial waves—large-scale tropical weather systems—in triggering such events. Through both their direct influence and interactions with the diurnal rainfall cycle and other weather systems, equatorial waves amplify precipitation and create favorable conditions for extreme rainfall. Despite their important role in modulating precipitation extremes, they are still underrepresented in many numerical weather prediction models, limiting forecast accuracy. Improving understanding and representation of these waves offers a pathway toward better forecasts and greater resilience in one of the world’s most vulnerable and rain-prone regions.

Monthly Weather ReviewVol. 154(3)
University of East Anglia (GB), Bureau of Meteorology (AU), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US), The University of Melbourne (AU), Meteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency (ID), University of California San Diego (US), Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (FR), Collaboration for Australian Weather and Climate Research (AU), National Centre for Atmospheric Science (GB), Météo-France (FR), Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences (PL), Instytut Oceanologii Polskiej Akademii Nauk (PL), National Research and Innovation Agency (ID), University of Reading (GB), Polish Academy of Sciences (PL)
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Climate variability and models
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