Assessing Grid Stability Under Renewable Energy Penetration Using Data-Driven Simulations

This study develops a simulation framework based on a modified IEEE 14-bus network in MATLAB/Simulink to evaluate stability under renewable energy integration. Hourly meteorological data from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet, Jan–Dec 2024) were used to model residential and commercial loads alongside solar irradiance and wind speed. System performance was assessed at penetration levels of 10%, 50%, 70%, and 100%, using metrics such as voltage deviations, frequency fluctuations, and energy storage requirements. At 10% penetration, voltage and frequency remained within ±1.8% and ±0.02 Hz, respectively. At 50%, deviations increased to ±4.5% and ±0.08 Hz, while at 100% they exceeded ±6% and ±0.15 Hz. Storage capacity needs also rose significantly, from 0.5 MWh to over 6.5 MWh. The results highlight the growing importance of scalable energy storage and advanced control measures for maintaining power system reliability under high renewable penetration.