Global risk pooling mitigates financial risk from drought in hydropower-dependent countries

More than 50 countries rely on hydropower for over 25% of their electricity generation, making them vulnerable to drought and resulting revenue losses. Governments can offset financial losses for publicly-owned hydropower generators, but this can create fiscal pressures and lead to negative consequences, such as lower bond ratings. Index-based financial instruments, used to manage weather-related risk, offer an alternative, though data collection and index design are challenging. Using remotely sensed hydrometeorological data, we develop index insurance contracts to manage drought-related financial risk for hydropower-dependent countries. Low correlations in drought across these countries allow cost reductions when risks are pooled. Pooling the contracts yields average savings of 54% compared to individual risk management via reserves. These findings indicate that pooled index insurance can strengthen financial resilience in countries dependent on hydropower and support governments in mitigating drought-related economic risks.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2026-01-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-67082-z
Primary Topic
Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Global risk pooling mitigates financial risk from drought in hydropower-dependent countries

Rosa Isabella Cuppari, Tamlin M. Pavelsky, Gregory W. Characklis
Nature Communications
Hydrology and Drought Analysis
article

Global risk pooling mitigates financial risk from drought in hydropower-dependent countries

Rosa Isabella Cuppari, Tamlin M. Pavelsky, Gregory W. Characklis
article en

Abstract

More than 50 countries rely on hydropower for over 25% of their electricity generation, making them vulnerable to drought and resulting revenue losses. Governments can offset financial losses for publicly-owned hydropower generators, but this can create fiscal pressures and lead to negative consequences, such as lower bond ratings. Index-based financial instruments, used to manage weather-related risk, offer an alternative, though data collection and index design are challenging. Using remotely sensed hydrometeorological data, we develop index insurance contracts to manage drought-related financial risk for hydropower-dependent countries. Low correlations in drought across these countries allow cost reductions when risks are pooled. Pooling the contracts yields average savings of 54% compared to individual risk management via reserves. These findings indicate that pooled index insurance can strengthen financial resilience in countries dependent on hydropower and support governments in mitigating drought-related economic risks.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 17(1)
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
National Science Foundation
Openalex Percentile: Top 91%
Hydrology and Drought Analysis
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