Driving Mechanisms of the Evolution of University–Industry Collaborative Innovation Networks in Chinese Cities: A TERGM-Based Analysis

Developing a deep understanding of the evolutionary driving mechanisms of university–industry collaborative innovation networks among Chinese cities is of great significance for advancing sustainable urban development. Based on university–industry collaborative patent data from 275 prefecture-level and above cities in China during the period 2004–2020, this study constructs an intercity university–industry collaborative innovation network and employs the temporal exponential random graph model to analyze its evolutionary driving mechanisms. The results indicate that the network structure has become increasingly complex over time and exhibits pronounced small-world characteristics in the later stages. Network formation is distinctly non-random and is jointly shaped by endogenous structural effects and exogenous factors. Diffusion, connectivity, and closure effects are all significant, while intercity collaborative ties are influenced by multidimensional proximity, including economic, geographic, and organizational proximity. Moreover, the network structure demonstrates strong temporal stability. In the context of high-intensity collaboration, cities place greater emphasis on economic and organizational proximity, and cities with higher levels of economic development and prior experience in high-intensity collaboration are more likely to establish collaborative ties. Furthermore, eastern cities tend to collaborate with partners at similar levels of economic development, whereas cities in central and western regions display a more pronounced core–periphery pattern. Overall, from the perspective of intercity university–industry collaborative innovation networks, this study provides new empirical evidence and insights for promoting coordinated regional innovation capacity and sustainable urban development.