Spatiotemporal simulation of land use and land cover changes in Türkiye through a CA–Markov framework

This study aims to utilize digital forest stand maps and GIS techniques with the CA-Markov model to analyze historical and projected land use dynamics and land use and land cover (LULC) in the Ulubey district of Uşak province, located in Türkiye's Aegean area. To achieve this objective, LULC changes from the years 2001, 2013, and 2025 were analyzed, and potential changes for 2037 and 2049 were projected utilizing the CA-Markov model, which exhibited an 83.7% similarity rate, 86.7% overall accuracy, and a 0.848 kappa statistic. The model's reliability was confirmed by overlaying the 2025 LULC change map onto the 2025 projected map. Between 2001 and 2025, the total forest area (broadleaf, coniferous, mixed, and degraded forest) diminished by 3290.4 hectares (13.82%). Agricultural lands in non-forest regions have increased by 2.69%, settlement areas by 68.00%, and water areas by 424.89%. The LULC simulation results for 2037-2049 predict a reduction of 11.43% to 20.57% in forest areas and a decline of 2.61% to 6.09% in settlement areas. An increase of 6.63% to 12.24% is projected in agricultural lands, while a rise of 14.67% is forecast in water areas. Employing LULC simulation to classify and analyze forested regions into coniferous, broadleaf, and mixed forest types can aid forest planners and managers in decision-making and implementation.