Heterogeneous Spatiotemporal Graph Attention Network for Karst Spring Discharge Prediction: Advancing Sustainable Groundwater Management Under Climate Change

Reliable forecasting of karst spring discharge is critical for sustainable groundwater resource management under the dual pressures of climate change and intensified anthropogenic activities. This study proposes a Heterogeneous Spatiotemporal Graph Attention Network (H-STGAT) to predict spring discharge dynamics at Shentou Spring, Shanxi Province, China. Unlike conventional spatiotemporal networks that treat all relationships uniformly, our model derives its heterogeneity from a graph structure that explicitly categorizes spatial, temporal, and periodic dependencies as unique edge classes. Specifically, a dual-layer attention mechanism is designed to independently extract hydrological features within each relational channel while dynamically assigning importance weights to fuse these multi-source dependencies. This architecture enables the adaptive capture of spatial heterogeneity, temporal dependencies, and multi-year periodic patterns in karst hydrological processes. Results demonstrate that H-STGAT outperforms both traditional statistical and deep learning models in predictive accuracy, achieving an RMSE of 0.22 m3/s and an NSE of 0.77. The model reveals a long-distance recharge pattern dominated by high-altitude regions, a finding validated by independent isotopic evidence, and accurately identifies an approximately 4–6 month lag between precipitation and spring discharge, which is consistent with the characteristic hydrological lag identified through statistical cross-covariance analysis. This research enhances the understanding of complex mechanisms in karst hydrological systems and provides a robust predictive tool for sustainable groundwater management and ecological conservation, while offering a generalizable methodological framework for similar complex karst hydrological systems.