From rents to rights: How resource dependence shapes democratic trajectories

This article offers a systematic, descriptive mapping of how natural resource dependence, economic development, and democratic governance co-vary across 167 countries from 2006 to 2024, with focused analysis for 2012–2021 when resource-rent data are available. Using a deliberately non-causal correlation design, it examines associations among the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index, GDP per capita (PPP, constant 2021 USD), and total natural resource rents (percent of GDP). The article makes three contributions. First, it updates global democracy–resource–development patterns for the current wave of democratic backsliding. Second, it shows that the strength and even the sign of democracy–resource correlations vary markedly across regions, consistent with the view that institutional quality and economic diversification mediate rentier and resource-curse dynamics. Third, it revisits modernization claims by documenting that democracy is strongly associated with higher prosperity levels globally yet often correlates with slower growth in mature democracies while remaining positively associated with growth in several developing regions. The conclusion outlines an institutionally moderated typology of resource–democracy configurations and highlights implications for governing fossil fuels and emerging “green transition” minerals. • Resource curse weakens democracy. • Institutions are key moderators. • Diversification enables stability.