Beyond Forests: A Strategic Framework for Climate-Positive Development from Thailand’s Net-Negative Provinces

As the global climate discourse shifts from mitigation to achieving net-negative emissions, there is a critical need for replicable, real-world models of climate-positive development at a regional scale, particularly in the Global South. This study addresses this gap by conducting a detailed greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory of four diverse provinces in Thailand and analyzing the results through the newly proposed Climate-Positive Pathways Framework (CPPF). Our findings reveal that all four provinces function as significant net-negative GHG sinks. They achieve this status through three distinct archetypes: a Conservation-Dependent pathway, an Agricultural Frontier pathway, and a novel Agro-Sink pathway. Most significantly, in the Agro-Sink model, we find that in specific economic contexts, managed agricultural landscapes can surpass natural forests as the primary driver of regional carbon removal. This typology provides a new, landscape-scale paradigm for cleaner production, proposing these three archetypes as transferable, evidence-based models for regional policymakers. This underscores that effective climate action requires context-specific regional planning that strategically leverages both natural and agricultural capital.