Coupling Modeling Approaches for the Assessment of Runoff Quality in an Urbanizing Catchment

The impacts of land use on stormwater runoff quality and Best Management Practices to mitigate these impacts have been investigated since the 1970s, yet challenges remain in providing a modeling approach that concomitantly considers contributions from different land use types. In densely developed urban areas, a buildup/washoff approach is often applied, while in rural areas, some type of erosion modeling is employed, as the processes of detachment, entrainment, and transport are fundamentally different. This study presents a coupled modeling approach within PCSWMM, integrating exponential buildup/washoff for impervious surfaces with the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) for pervious areas, including construction sites, to characterize water quality in the large mixed urban–rural Sparrovale catchment in Geelong, Australia. The watershed includes an innovative cascading system of 12 online NbS wetlands along one of the main tributaries, Armstrong Creek, to manage runoff quantity and quality, as well as 16 offline NbS wetlands that are tributary to the online system. A total of 78 samples for Total Suspended Solids (TSS), Total Phosphorus (TP), and Total Nitrogen (TN) were collected from six monitoring sites along Armstrong Creek during wet- and dry-weather events between May and July 2024 for model validation. The data were supplemented with six other catchment stormwater quality datasets collected during earlier studies, which provided an understanding of water quality status for the broader Geelong region. Results showed that average nutrient concentrations across all the sites ranged from 0.44 to 2.66 mg/L for TP and 0.69 to 5.7 mg/L for TN, spanning from within to above the ecological threshold ranges for eutrophication risk (TP: 0.042 to 1 mg/L, TN: 0.3 to 1.5 mg/L). In the study catchment, upstream wetlands reduced pollutant levels; however, downstream wetlands that received runoff from agriculture, residential areas, and, importantly, construction sites, showed a substantial increase in sediment and nutrient concentration. Water quality modeling revealed washoff parameters primarily influenced concentrations from established urban neighborhoods, whereas erosion parameters substantially impacted total pollutant loads for the larger system, demonstrating the importance of integrated modeling for capturing pollutant dynamics in heterogeneous, urbanizing catchments. The study results emphasize the need for spatially targeted management strategies to improve stormwater runoff quality and also show the potential for cascading wetlands to be an important element of the Nature-based Solution (NbS) runoff management system.