Digital safety management systems (DSMS) and predictive risk governance: transforming aviation safety and sustainability

Purpose This study examines the impact of digital safety management systems (DSMS) and predictive risk governance (PRG) on enhancing sustainability in the aviation sector, with a focus on the emerging market context of Jordan. It examines how digitalized safety policy, assurance and promotions supported by artificial intelligence (AI), big data analytics, and predictive modeling contribute to the economic, environmental and social dimensions of sustainability. The research further explores how predictive risk intelligence transforms traditional safety management systems (SMS) into proactive, integrated and sustainability-oriented frameworks. Design/methodology/approach A mixed-methods design was adopted, combining quantitative and qualitative approaches. Data were collected from 215 managers and safety professionals across 11 aviation organizations in Jordan. Using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) via SmartPLS 4, the study analyzed the relationships among DSMS components, PRG, and sustainability outcomes, complemented by qualitative interviews and document reviews to validate contextual insights and digital transformation practices. Findings Results demonstrate that DSMS implementation significantly enhances sustainability through improved operational efficiency, environmental responsibility and safety culture. Each DSMS component – digital safety policy, digital safety assurance and digital safety promotions showed a strong positive influence on sustainability. Furthermore, PRG exhibited a significant mediating effect, amplifying the predictive power of DSMS on sustainability. The model explained 81.2% of the variance in sustainability (R2 = 0.812), confirming the substantial role of digital transformation and predictive analytics in achieving sustainable aviation outcomes. Originality/value This research provides updated empirical evidence on the integration of digital safety intelligence and sustainability governance within the aviation industry, directly addressing recent calls for data-driven safety and environmental accountability. It extends existing SMS theory by embedding digital and predictive capabilities as strategic resources within the resource-based view, dynamic capabilities and systems theory frameworks. The study also aligns with International Civil Aviation Organization's Safety Management Manual (5th Ed., 2023) and Federal Aviation Administration Advisory Circular 120-92C (2024), offering practical guidance for regulators and industry leaders transitioning toward predictive, artificial intelligence-enabled and sustainability-driven aviation safety systems.