Analysis and prediction of the trends in diabetes mellitus mortality in Chinese residents from 2008 to 2021

China is one of the crucial countries with a significant number of diabetes patients, but only a limited number of studies on diabetes mellitus (DM) mortality rates have been reported among the Chinese population. This study examined trends in diabetes mortality in China from 2008 to 2021 and projected future rates from 2022 to 2030, providing evidence to guide prevention and control strategies. Annual diabetes mortality data were obtained from the China Death Surveillance Dataset (2008–2021). Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was calculated using the direct method, referencing the Sixth National Census population. Trends in diabetes mortality were analyzed via joinpoint regression to derive the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC), and to assess the trends. Finally, a GM(1,1) model was constructed to predict the crude mortality rate (CMR) and ASMR of diabetes until 2030. From 2008 to 2021, the diabetes mortality rates in China rose from 9.72 to 18.88 per 100,000, while the ASMR rose from 10.59 to 12.37 per 100,000 (AAPC: 1.198%; 95% CI: 0.182%, 2.224%). A rising trend was observed in males (AAPC: 1.874%; 95% CI: 0.591%, 3.118%), in rural areas (AAPC: 1.992%; 95% CI: 1.108%, 2.884%), in the western region (AAPC: 3.857%; 95% CI: 2.249%, 5.491%), and in the 65-and-over age group (AAPC: 1.938%; 95% CI: 0.537%, 3.358%) from 2008 to 2021. By 2030, the CMR and ASMR for diabetes are projected to reach 31.26 and 14.44 per 100,000, respectively. From 2008 to 2021, diabetes mortality rates in China showed an increasing trend, with disparities observed across sex, residence, region, and age groups. The increasing trend of diabetes mortality will continue in the future. Healthcare organizations and policymakers need to focus on male groups, rural areas, the western region and the population aged 65 and above, while implementing robust diabetes prevention strategies targeting younger cohorts.