A Typhoon Clustering Model for the Western Pacific Coast Based on Interpretable Machine Learning

As a complex and destructive natural disaster, the characteristics of typhoons are closely related to human activities, and their accurate categorization is of vital significance for improving disaster warning and management capabilities. This study highlights the key role of typhoon clustering in analyzing typhoon behaviors, aiming to provide reliable support for disaster prevention and control. Based on the NOAA meteorological dataset from 2003 to 2024, this study firstly adopts the K-means clustering algorithm to classify typhoons into seven categories and then utilizes eight machine learning models to train and validate the classification results, and introduces the Shapley’s additive interpretation (SHAP) algorithm to enhance the interpretability of the models. The study data covers a variety of features such as air temperature, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and weather station observations, etc. After a systematic preprocessing process, a feature matrix containing key variables such as typhoon intensity and moving speed is constructed. The results show that the XGBoost model outperforms others across multiple evaluation metrics (Accuracy: 0.992, Precision: 0.989, Recall: 0.992, F1.5 Score: 0.990), highlighting its exceptional capability in managing complex weather classification tasks. The seven categories of typhoon types classified by K-means exhibit different feature patterns, while the SHAP analysis further reveals the effects of each feature on the classification and its potential interactions. This study not only verifies the effectiveness of K-means combined with machine learning in typhoon classification but also lays a solid scientific foundation for accurate prediction, risk assessment and optimization of management strategies for typhoon disasters through the in-depth analysis of feature impacts.