Multidecadal Variation Characteristics and Mechanism Analysis of Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation During the Little Ice Age

The Indian monsoon is an important component of the tropical climate system. Studies suggest that both precipitation from the NNU-2K AF experiments and Little Ice Age (LIA) proxy data reveal a significant 56-year period in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Volcanic activity influences the multi-year and decadal characteristics of Indian monsoon precipitation. A comparative analysis of multi-decadal variations in ISM precipitation from the AF experiments and the single-factor sensitivity experiments shows a correlation of 0.45 (p < 0.05), indicating dependence on volcanic activity. The 56-year period of ISM precipitation in the AF experiments is consistent with both the single-factor sensitivity experiments and precipitation influenced by volcanic activity. Further analysis reveals that cooling over Eurasia and warming of the Indian Ocean weaken the thermal contrast between land and sea, thereby reducing ISM intensity and decreasing ISM precipitation. Conversely, enhanced volcanic activity induces widespread cooling across the Northern Hemisphere, which shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) southward. This reduction in evaporative capacity and moisture content within the monsoon region ultimately decreases precipitation across the monsoon belt.