Revealing Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Global Seismic Thermal Anomalies: Framework Based on Annual Energy Balance and Geospatial Constraints

Thermal anomalies serve as potential earthquake precursors and are crucial for understanding the mechanisms underlying seismogenic mechanisms and geodynamic perturbations. To address the limited understanding of the polarity evolution of thermal anomalies, we developed a dynamic spatiotemporal adaptive framework to quantify global thermal anomaly responses. Four parameters—the coefficient of determination (R2), spatiotemporal uncertainty (SU), temporal–spatial uncertainty ratio (TSUR), and spatiotemporal correlation coefficient (SCC)—were established to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of thermal anomaly responses. Additionally, the Anomaly Emphasis Proximity (AEP) was introduced to identify statistically significant thermal anomaly events. The results indicate that the spatiotemporal evolution of thermal anomalies exhibits a transition from pre-earthquake mixed anomalies (both positive and negative) to post-earthquake unipolar anomalies (TIB decreased from 92% to 49%), accompanied by pronounced sea–land differentiation (SST increased from 0.3% to 98.7%). The AEP reveals significant thermal anomaly clustering highly consistent with earthquake activity (e.g., the 2008 Mw 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau), showing strong correlations in structurally active regions (e.g., SCA and SWS; FDR < 18.5%, STCW > 3.7%) but weaker ones in stable regions (e.g., CNA and ECA). Overall, this framework significantly enhances the robustness and reliability of seismic thermal anomaly detection.