Labor market effects of the Venezuelan refugee crisis in Brazil

Abstract We use administrative panel data on the universe of Brazilian formal sector workers to investigate the labor market effects of the Venezuelan refugee crisis, focusing on Roraima state, which experienced a sharp, localized refugee inflow. Using difference-in-differences, we compare outcomes for Roraima workers to those from similar northern states without refugee arrivals. We find that the hourly wages of Brazilians in Roraima increased by approximately 2 per cent with no overall evidence of employer-initiated job separations. Wage gains were more pronounced in sector–occupation pairs with limited refugee presence and non-tradable sectors, consistent with demand-driven mechanisms. We also find suggestive evidence of labor complementarities.