Natural Resource Rents, Geopolitical Risk, and Environmental Pollution: Evidence from Türkiye

Türkiye’s strategic geographical position and growth trajectory significantly shape its natural resource rents, environmental sustainability, and policy orientation. The primary objective of this study is to examine the long-run relationship between natural resource rents, geopolitical risk, and environmental degradation—proxied by the ecological footprint—in Türkiye over the period 1985–2021. To this end, the study employs the Fourier-based RALS-ADL cointegration approach, which allows for structural breaks and nonlinear adjustments in the data. The empirical results confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Natural resource rents, economic growth, and energy consumption exert positive and statistically significant effects on the ecological footprint, whereas geopolitical risk has a negative and significant impact. The positive effect of natural resource rents on the ecological footprint can be attributed to intensified resource extraction and energy-intensive production, whereas the negative impact of geopolitical risk likely reflects contractions in economic activity and investment under heightened uncertainty, thereby reducing environmental pressure. The main contribution of this study is to account for multiple and unknown structural changes and to provide more robust long-term inferences using the Fourier-based RALS-ADL methodology. Overall, the evidence emphasizes the necessity of a holistic policy framework that simultaneously considers natural resource management, geopolitical dynamics, economic expansion, and energy consumption in order to achieve environmental sustainability in Türkiye.