Data-Driven Life-Cycle Assessment of Household Air Conditioners: Identifying Low-Carbon Operation Patterns Based on Big Data Analysis

Air conditioners are a critical adaptation measure against heat- and cold-related risks under climate change. However, their electricity use and refrigerant leakage increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study developed a data-driven life-cycle assessment (LCA) framework for residential room air conditioners in Japan by integrating large-scale field operation data with life-cycle climate performance (LCCP) modeling. We aggregated 1 min records for approximately 4100 wall-mounted split units and evaluated the 10-year LCCP across nine climate regions. Using the annual operating hours and electricity consumption, we classified the units into four behavioral quadrants and quantified the life-cycle GHG emissions and parameter sensitivities for each. The results show that the use-phase electricity dominated the total emissions, and that even under the same climate and capacity class, the 10-year per-unit emissions differed by roughly a factor of two between the high- and low-load quadrants. The sensitivity analysis identified the heating hours and the setpoint–indoor temperature difference as the most influential drivers, whereas the grid CO2 intensity, equipment lifetime, and refrigerant assumptions were of secondary importance. By replacing a single assumed use scenario with empirical profiles and behavior-based clusters, the proposed framework improves the representativeness of the LCA for air conditioners. This enabled the design of cluster-specific mitigation strategies.