Reducing avoidable deaths and energy poverty: Conjoint experimental survey evidence on United Kingdom voters' priorities for energy policy

The United Kingdom Government has highlighted the importance of energy security, energy affordability and a transition to net zero as policy priorities. However, there is concern that the most efficient means of achieving this – nationalisation of the grid and parts of generation and supply – require taxation that is not electorally feasible. It is often asserted that there is an apparent paradox in this regard, such that those who have most to gain from reform are also those most likely to object to those policies. This is most regularly invoked in the case of Red Wall electoral constituencies in Wales and the North and Midlands of England that were won from Labour by the Conservatives in 2019 and which have been described as politically and economically conservative. This article presents findings from conjoint and narrative survey data on energy policy preferences from 595 adults in 2024 with postcodes within Red Wall constituencies – the first such examination of the topic in these electorally critical areas. We find little evidence to suggest widespread opposition to progressive reform, though Conservative voters are more likely to oppose tax rises, even at the cost of reducing avoidable deaths. Overall, voters prioritise reduction of avoidable deaths and energy poverty, as well as transition to public ownership of North Sea oil and gas. Respondents preferred nationalisation over private company ownership of the energy system, and favoured funding through corporate taxation over increases to income tax. This suggests that substantive reform is preferred to the status quo .