Impacts of climatic change on agroecological systems in the Western Himalaya

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the long-term impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity in the Kumaun region of Uttarakhand, India. Drawing upon 25 years (1998–2023) of meteorological data and extensive field-based surveys with local farmers, the analysis reveals a statistically significant warming trend of + 1.2 °C, rainfall variability of ± 21%, and a 15% rise in relative humidity. These climatic shifts have had profound effects on crop yields, particularly for climate-sensitive crops. Potato production has plummeted by 94.8%, apple orchards have declined by 87%, and pulse cultivation has dropped by 64.7%. These declines are closely linked to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms, which accelerate soil erosion, deplete nutrients, and degrade land quality. In parallel, elevated temperatures and increased humidity have intensified the spread of phytopathogens and insect pests, further exacerbating crop failures and resulting in significant economic losses. The findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive interventions tailored to mountain ecosystems.