Probabilistic resilience and circular-resource assessment of solar–green hydrogen hybrid systems (SGHHS) with industrial waste water reuse across varying climatic regions of Pakistan

• Introduces Resilience Variability and Circular Resourse Index linking stability and water reuse. • Develops the probabilistic, LCA-integrated regional SGHHS model combining Simulation → DCF → Monte Carlo → MCDA analysis. • Demonstrates 90 % waste water recovery and strong irradiance–cost–carbon synergy (R2 ≈ 0.9) across diverse climatic zones. • Establishes a replicable resilience–circularity framework. This study develops a probabilistic, life-cycle–integrated framework for Solar–Green Hydrogen Hybrid Systems (SGHHS) coupled with industrial waste water reuse across five climatic zones of Pakistan. The framework unites hourly simulation, discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to evaluate cost, carbon, and water performance under stochastic variability. Two new metrics are introduced: The Resilience Variability Index (RVI)—quantifying financial stability under cost uncertainty—and the Circular-Resource Index (CRI)—measuring closed-loop water efficiency in the MBR–RO–DI chain. Results reveal strong irradiance–cost–carbon coupling (R 2 ≈ 0.9). Bahawalpur and Dera Ghazi Khan exhibit the best performance with LCOE < 0.10 USD kWh −1 , CO 2 savings ≈165–170 kt, and RVI ≥ 0.8. Waste water reuse achieves ≈90 % recovery, cuts freshwater demand by ∼3500 m 3 yr −1 , and reduces costs by 10–15 %. MCDA outcomes remain stable over 10,000 random weighting draws, confirming alignment between economic and environmental priorities. The resulting Simulation → LCA → DCF → Monte Carlo → MCDA workflow provides a transferable decision tool linking resilience and circularity. It reframes waste water from liability to strategic resource, proving that resilient, low-carbon, and water-secure hydrogen systems are technically and economically achievable for developing, water-stressed regions.