Analysis on the Direct and Indirect Effects of Housing Price Changes on Birth

This study analyzed the effect of housing prices on childbirth in various ways, and the main achievements of the study are as follows: First, population and marriage variables that were not considered in previous studies had statistically significant effects on childbirth. This means that when marriage, etc., is reflected in the control variable, the effect of housing prices on childbirth can be grasped more precisely. Second, housing prices had a direct effect on childbirth, and the effect was greater on second and third childbirths than on the first childbirth. Among housing prices, the real housing cost burden, rather than the nominal price, explained the childbirth effect well. Third, housing prices had a negative effect on marriage and marriage age. Fourth, the socio-economic environment, such as marriage age, housing price, and private education expenses, gradually increased in the order of first, second, and third childbirths. Taken together, it was confirmed that housing prices had direct and indirect effects on childbirth through marriage as a mediator variable. Therefore, to increase the fertility rate, the government needs to actively encourage marriage closely related to the first childbirth and create an environment that lowers the marriage age. In addition, considering the effect of housing prices on childbirth, policy measures related to reducing the burden of housing expenses need to be strengthened for the second childbirths rather than the first childbirths. This is because the decision-making process plays an important role in the second childbirth.